UNCTAD: Nigeria Records World’s Highest Diesel Price Increase at 82.7%

Nigeria recorded the highest increase in diesel prices globally, with costs rising by 82.7% between February and August 2026, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The finding is contained in UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2026: The Geoeconomics of Development, released on Friday, October 9, 2026.

The report, which compares fuel prices as of August 31, 2026, also revealed that petrol prices in Nigeria increased by 48.1% during the same period, ranking the country fourth among the countries and territories covered.

Nigeria Tops Global Diesel Price Increase Rankings

According to UNCTAD, diesel prices in Nigeria rose by 82.7% between February 23 and August 31, 2026, representing the highest increase recorded among the countries and territories examined.

Lebanon followed with a 73.6% increase, while Peru and Guatemala recorded increases of 66.7% and 66.3%, respectively.

For petrol, Myanmar recorded the highest increase at 50.7%, followed by the United Arab Emirates at 49.8% and Malaysia at 48.4%. Nigeria ranked fourth, with a 48.1% rise over the same period.

UNCTAD explained that although the disruption in global energy markets affects countries worldwide, the impact varies depending on how international price increases translate into domestic fuel and electricity costs.

“The shock is global, but the effects are uneven,” the report stated, explaining that rising energy costs erode consumers’ purchasing power and limit household consumption.

The organisation added that the sharpest increases in domestic fuel prices have largely occurred in developing economies, particularly across Asia and Africa, as illustrated in Figure I.7 of the report.

Nigeria Could Benefit From Higher Global Oil Prices

UNCTAD identified Nigeria, Angola, Guyana and Kazakhstan as oil and gas exporters that could gain from rising international energy prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.

The report linked the energy market disruption to damage to energy infrastructure and interruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. These developments resulted in what UNCTAD described as the largest monthly loss of global energy supply on record.

Following the outbreak of the conflict, Brent crude prices climbed from approximately $70 to more than $110 per barrel.

Despite releases from global oil reserves and increased production outside the Middle East, UNCTAD expects oil prices to remain more than $30 per barrel above their pre-conflict levels through the end of 2026.

For Nigeria, higher crude oil prices could translate into increased export earnings. However, the benefits could be reduced by rising costs of refined petroleum products, particularly if domestic refining capacity cannot fully meet local demand.

Although Nigeria has expanded its refining capacity, continued petrol imports mean domestic fuel prices remain exposed to developments in international markets.

Electric Vehicles Could Strengthen Africa’s Energy Security

UNCTAD said the growing adoption of electric motorbikes and buses across Africa presents an opportunity for countries to reduce their dependence on petrol and diesel while improving energy security.

As electric vehicles become more affordable and competitive, African economies could accelerate the transition to electric mobility and limit their exposure to global fuel price shocks.

The report also noted that countries with more developed renewable energy systems have been less vulnerable to increases in fossil fuel prices.

Data from Ember cited by UNCTAD showed that natural gas determines electricity prices approximately 15% of the time in Spain, compared with 89% in Italy.

Global electric vehicle trade increased by 11% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the report.

UNCTAD also highlighted China, Nepal, Singapore and Viet Nam as examples of countries where electric vehicle adoption has helped reduce exposure to fuel shortages.

However, supply pressures have forced at least 25 countries to introduce fuel rationing or other restrictions, underscoring the risks associated with dependence on fossil fuels.

Nigeria’s Petrol Imports Continue to Decline

Nigeria’s expanding domestic refining capacity is gradually reducing the country’s dependence on imported petrol.

According to Nairametrics, Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied approximately 50 million litres of petrol daily to the domestic market during the first half of 2026.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that average daily petrol imports fell by 26% to 14.6 million litres in August 2026, down from 19.7 million litres in July.

Similarly, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) figures indicated that Nigeria’s petrol import bill dropped by 96.15% to N87.40 billion in the first quarter of 2026, compared with N2.27 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Despite the decline in imports, fuel import licences remain part of the market.

In September 2026, the Federal High Court in Abuja ordered the NMDPRA to continue issuing import licences to Matrix Energy, AA Rano and AYM Shafa, subject to applicable statutory and regulatory requirements.

Meanwhile, on October 9, the Federal Government clarified that the 30-day petrol discount announced by NNPC Retail would be funded through the company’s profit margins rather than allocations from the federal budget or the Federation Account.

Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele explained that NNPC Retail would continue purchasing petrol from Dangote Refinery and other suppliers at prevailing market prices while absorbing the discount through reduced margins.