With just over 700 days until the 2027 presidential election, political maneuvering is in full swing as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu positions himself for a second term. Amid mixed reactions from Northern leaders, Tinubu is now actively courting South-East and South-South leaders, seeking to broaden his support base beyond his 2023 strongholds.
North Declares Support, But Tinubu Looks South
Last month, APC National Chairman Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje assured that the North would back Tinubu’s re-election and reclaim power in 2031 under Nigeria’s power rotation principle. Similarly, Minister of State for Defence Dr. Bello Matawalle reaffirmed Northern support for Tinubu to ensure continuity in governance.
Despite these endorsements, Tinubu’s camp is reportedly working behind the scenes to secure electoral backing from the South-East and South-South, regions where he faced significant opposition in 2023. His strategy includes forging alliances with key governors and implementing strategic projects to win over voters.
2023 Election: Tinubu’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Tinubu’s 2023 victory was largely anchored in the North-West, North-Central, and South-West. However, he struggled in the South-East and South-South, where Peter Obi of the Labour Party dominated. Notably, Tinubu failed to secure 25% of votes in Abuja, a constitutional requirement for winning the presidency.
Presidential Election Results Breakdown
South-West (Tinubu’s Stronghold) – 58.4% votes for Tinubu
North-Central (Tinubu’s Victory) – 41.3% votes for Tinubu
North-West (Tinubu’s Highest Vote Zone) – 41% votes for Tinubu
South-South (Obi’s Dominance) – 44.1% votes for Obi
South-East (Obi’s Stronghold) – 89.6% votes for Obi
North-East (Atiku’s Stronghold) – 55.9% votes for Atiku
2027 Strategy: Striking Deals with Opposition Governors
To tilt the scales in his favor, Tinubu is reportedly negotiating with South-East and South-South governors, offering political concessions in exchange for electoral support. Sources indicate he may allow opposition governors to retain their seats in exchange for backing his re-election.
Among those potentially benefiting from this arrangement are:
Anambra: Gov. Charles Soludo (APGA)
Enugu: Gov. Peter Mbah (PDP)
Akwa Ibom: Gov. Umo Eno (PDP)
Bayelsa: PDP-led government
Delta: Gov. Sheriff Oborevwori (PDP)
Additionally, Tinubu’s camp is open to welcoming defecting governors into the APC, strengthening his grip ahead of the polls.
Internal APC Divide Over Strategy
However, not everyone within the APC supports this approach. Some party leaders argue that securing APC-led state governments, particularly in regions like Anambra, would be more beneficial than relying on opposition governors.
As 2027 approaches, Tinubu faces a crucial test: Can he consolidate his Northern base while winning over the South-East and South-South? The coming months will reveal whether his political maneuvering will secure him a second term, or face a repeat of his 2023 struggles.
