Nigeria has committed hundreds of millions of barrels of future crude production to financing arrangements used to raise funds for the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd).
An analysis of NNPC’s 2025 audited financial statements shows that three major crude-backed facilities, Project Gazelle, Project Leopard and Project Leopard II, involve crude commitments of more than 186,000 barrels per day.
Based on the original five-year terms of the three arrangements, the combined volume works out at roughly 340 million barrels of crude.
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The arrangements have drawn attention because they mean part of the oil company’s future crude receipts is already linked to existing financial obligations.
However, the figures need to be understood in context. The crude has not simply been “given away”; the arrangements involve financing provided upfront, with repayment linked to future crude deliveries or receipts under contractual terms.
How much crude is tied to the three facilities?
The three facilities are structured differently but collectively involve a significant volume of future crude.
Project Gazelle
Project Gazelle was entered into in December 2023 as a five-year forward-sale financing arrangement involving 90,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Production Sharing Contract assets.
NNPC drew about ₦4.9 trillion from the ₦5.1 trillion facility and had repaid approximately ₦2.09 trillion in principal by the end of 2025, leaving about ₦2.81 trillion outstanding, according to reports based on the company’s audited accounts.
However, there has since been an important development.
In August 2026, the National Economic Council approved the refinancing of the outstanding Project Gazelle balance through a new $4.5 billion Project Gazelle 2 facility.
The refinancing was designed to reduce the crude commitment from 90,000 barrels per day to approximately 78,750 barrels per day, releasing about 11,250 barrels per day for the Federation.
This means older reports that simply project the original 90,000 barrels per day throughout the entire five-year period should be read alongside the 2026 refinancing.
Project Leopard
Project Leopard was signed in December 2024 as another five-year forward-sale arrangement.
Under the agreement, NNPC committed 35,000 barrels of crude per day to repay the financing.
The facility was valued at about ₦3.05 trillion. NNPC had drawn the full amount by February 2025 and had repaid approximately ₦420 billion in principal by the end of 2025, leaving about ₦2.47 trillion outstanding.
Repayment began in June 2025 following a six-month moratorium.
Project Leopard II
Project Leopard II is the newest of the three arrangements.
Under the facility, NNPC raised approximately ₦3.03 trillion against a commitment of 61,250 barrels of crude per day.
The facility was fully drawn by December 31, 2025, but no principal had been repaid at that reporting date. Repayment was scheduled to begin in June 2026 after a six-month moratorium.
The 61,250 barrels per day commitment makes Leopard II the largest of the three facilities by daily crude allocation after the original Gazelle arrangement.
How does 186,250 barrels per day become 340 million barrels?
The original daily commitments were:
- Gazelle — 90,000 barrels per day
- Leopard — 35,000 barrels per day
- Leopard II — 61,250 barrels per day
Together, that equals 186,250 barrels per day.
If that volume is multiplied by 365 days and five years, the calculation produces approximately 339.9 million barrels.
That is where the widely reported figure of approximately 340 million barrels comes from.
It is important to describe this as the crude volume associated with the stated five-year arrangements rather than suggesting that 340 million barrels had already been delivered to lenders.
NNPC’s 2025 accounts showed that substantial balances remained outstanding at the end of the reporting year.
How much money is involved?
The three facilities together amount to roughly ₦11.2 trillion in financing.
The reported figures include approximately:
- ₦5.1 trillion for Project Gazelle
- ₦3.05 trillion for Project Leopard
- ₦3.03 trillion for Project Leopard II
The three facilities therefore represent a major portion of NNPC’s forward-sale financing obligations.
At the end of 2025, reports based on the audited accounts put the outstanding principal on the three arrangements at more than ₦8 trillion.
Why would NNPC borrow against future crude?
Crude-backed financing allows an oil producer to receive money upfront and repay the financing through future crude deliveries or proceeds.
For an oil-producing country facing immediate financing needs, such arrangements can provide access to liquidity without waiting for future crude production and sales.
NNPC has used forward-sale arrangements for different purposes over the years.
Its 2024 financial statements, for example, documented several financing structures involving forward sales of crude and other commodities. Project Leopard was specifically described as a five-year forward-sale agreement involving 35,000 barrels per day.
The key issue is therefore not simply that crude is being used in financing arrangements, but how much future production is committed, how much financing is obtained, what the repayment terms are and what happens when oil prices or production levels change.
What happens if oil prices rise?
One concern surrounding crude-backed financing is the opportunity cost.
If oil prices rise substantially, crude committed under a financing arrangement may have a higher market value than when the financing was initially structured.
That does not automatically mean Nigeria loses money, because the actual economics depend on the specific repayment formula, interest costs, crude pricing mechanism, delivery arrangements and other contractual terms.
Conversely, lower oil prices could change the economics of the arrangement in the opposite direction.
This is why crude-backed financing cannot be assessed simply by multiplying barrels by the current international oil price.
NNPC says Gazelle is still active
NNPC Group Chief Executive Officer Bashir Bayo Ojulari recently addressed Project Gazelle while presenting the company’s 2025 audited results.
He said the facility remained active until its obligations were fully settled and explained that Gazelle relates to Production Sharing Contract assets rather than NNPC’s joint-venture operations.
Ojulari also said the repayment period could change depending on crude prices and production levels.
That means the repayment timeline should not necessarily be treated as a fixed date regardless of market conditions.
The subsequent Gazelle refinancing in 2026 further changed the original structure, including reducing the crude commitment from 90,000 barrels per day to approximately 78,750 barrels per day.
NNPC’s financial position has also changed
The crude-backed obligations come as NNPC reports stronger profitability.
The company said its profit after tax rose 33 per cent to ₦7.2 trillion in 2025, while operating cash flow reached ₦12.8 trillion.
NNPC also reported average crude oil and condensate production of 1.77 million barrels per day in 2025.
These figures provide important context: the existence of crude-backed financing obligations does not mean NNPC is unable to generate revenue or is insolvent.
Rather, the issue is the extent to which future crude receipts are already committed to financing arrangements and how those obligations affect available cash flows.
What does this mean for Nigeria?
The crude-backed financing arrangements show how Nigeria has used its oil resources to secure funding before future production is realised.
Such financing can provide immediate liquidity for government or NNPC-related obligations, but it also creates future repayment commitments.
For Nigerians, the important questions are therefore about transparency, pricing, interest costs, repayment schedules and the amount of future oil revenue that remains available after contractual obligations are settled.
The latest NNPC figures also show that the company is targeting higher production, with plans to reach 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and 3 million barrels per day by 2030.
Whether increased production will provide enough additional revenue to comfortably absorb existing commitments will depend on production levels, crude prices, financing costs and the terms of individual agreements.
For now, the available financial statements show that crude-backed financing remains a significant part of NNPC’s financial structure, while the refinancing of Project Gazelle demonstrates that the terms and volume of crude committed can change over time.
In simple terms, Nigeria has not handed over 340 million barrels of oil in advance. Rather, a large volume of future crude has been committed under financing arrangements that provide funding upfront and require repayment through future crude deliveries or related proceeds.
