Extinction risk by 2100: experts rank the 17 biggest threats to human health

A new global risk assessment warns that humanity could face extinction by 2100 through the malicious use of AI or nuclear war.

These two dangers lead a list of 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years. The list also covers reduced aid spending by wealthy nations, the climate crisis, and childhood malnutrition.

The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health said the threats are interconnected and need to be tackled together, though it emphasized that each has “a realistic route to act.” Commission co-chair Prof Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said that choices made by today’s leaders will determine the health and wellbeing of the next generation.

To build the list, the commission modelled how many healthy years of life each threat might cost through illness, disability, or premature death, assuming current trends continue. This measure is called disability-adjusted life years (Dalys).

The report said that malicious AI use, including AI-designed bioweapons, and nuclear war leading to nuclear famine both carry extinction risks over the coming 75 years. Their likelihood remains low, it noted, but a nuclear conflict could throw enough particles into the upper atmosphere to block out sunlight and trigger famine, while AI could be used to create biological weapons. A Lancet editorial published alongside the report cautioned that if these threats materialized, the damage would amount to an apocalypse for humanity.

Fifteen further threats were classed as “major catastrophic threats” because each could cause over 1bn cumulative Dalys. They include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown, conventional warfare, falling overseas aid, heavy alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking, and unhealthy ageing.

Threats had to meet two criteria to make the list: the potential to cost many healthy years, and the existence of possible solutions.

Commission member Ibrahim Abubakar, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at UCL, stressed that the aim was not to frighten people. Rather, he said, the commission wanted to show policymakers, at both the global and national level, which threats they may face and how much difference action could make.

The report’s best- and worst-case modelling found that holding global heating to roughly 1.8C (3.2F) instead of letting it climb to 4.4C could prevent the loss of 1.89bn healthy life years.

Wealthier regions are chiefly threatened by non-communicable conditions such as obesity and poor mental health, whereas in poorer regions, issues like low educational attainment drive the greatest health losses.

Several large donors, including the US and UK, have announced major aid cuts in the past year. The commission estimated that a collapse or sharp reduction in international health aid could cost up to 1.5bn Dalys by 2100, nearly 70% of them in sub-Saharan Africa, which also suffers most from child malnutrition.

The commission’s 35 experts will present their findings on Sunday at the World Health Summit in Berlin. The assessment will be refreshed every year with new data and emerging hazards.

The authors called on leaders to act before these risks become full-blown crises, through investment in technological innovation and stronger health systems. Murray said the project began three years ago with the assumption that conflict, climate, and pandemics were the three main threats, but the real number turned out to be far larger. He argued that governments need to assign money and staff to anticipating, preventing, and preparing for this wider range of dangers.

Source: The Guardian